Research: Influence of Global Climate Change on the Hydrologic Cycle

I have also focused my research on the influence of global climate change on the hydrologic cycle.  General Circulation Models predict that mid-latitude locations in Canada and the United States may experience more frequent and severe drought events as a result of global warming.  I examined the instrumental and paleoclimate records in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States to determine whether summer precipitation was becoming more variable and more severe (Quiring, 2004).  Unfortunately, instrumental records are only available for approximately the last 100 years, so it is necessary to rely on paleoclimate reconstructions to characterize the entire range of natural variability within the climate system.  I demonstrated that recent precipitation anomalies, when compared to an 800-year precipitation reconstruction, are not particularly unusual and growing-season moisture conditions during the 20th century appear to be well within the range of natural climate variability. 

I plan to pursue extramural funding to examine the long-term North American drought record.  The paleoclimate record can be used to better understand the full range the natural variability in the climate system and to develop a baseline climatology of drought frequency, severity, duration, and spatial extent.  This information can be used to put recent events into proper historical perspective and for climate change detection.  I am also interested in using water balance modeling to determine what impact changes to the hydrological cycle will have on various sectors (e.g., agriculture, forestry).

The following links provide more information on this research: