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Research: Influence of Global Climate Change on the Hydrologic
Cycle
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| I have also focused
my research
on the influence of global climate
change on the hydrologic cycle. General Circulation Models
predict
that mid-latitude locations in Canada and the United States may
experience
more frequent and severe drought events as a result of global
warming.
I examined the instrumental and paleoclimate records in the
Mid-Atlantic
region of the United States to determine whether summer precipitation
was
becoming more variable and more severe (Quiring, 2004).
Unfortunately,
instrumental records are only available for approximately the last 100
years, so it is necessary to rely on paleoclimate reconstructions to
characterize
the entire range of natural variability within the climate
system.
I demonstrated that recent precipitation anomalies, when compared to an
800-year precipitation reconstruction, are not particularly unusual and
growing-season moisture conditions during the 20th century appear to be
well within the range of natural climate variability.
I plan to pursue extramural funding to examine the long-term North American drought record. The paleoclimate record can be used to better understand the full range the natural variability in the climate system and to develop a baseline climatology of drought frequency, severity, duration, and spatial extent. This information can be used to put recent events into proper historical perspective and for climate change detection. I am also interested in using water balance modeling to determine what impact changes to the hydrological cycle will have on various sectors (e.g., agriculture, forestry). The following links provide more information on this research: |